Amid resurgent geopolitical risks following U.S. airstrikes against Iran—triggered by attacks on civilian vessels—a new variable has emerged that could drive raw material costs back up. However, the global PVC market currently faces a stark contrast between rising upstream pressures and heavily depressed downstream demand.
As the Asian region enters the summer monsoon season, residential construction activities have significantly slowed down. Consequently, market demand for PVC resin and plasticizers has plummeted well below historical averages, leading to elevated inventory levels among major PVC producers. Reflecting this supply-demand imbalance, manufacturers’ offer prices have retreated to pre-war levels or even lower. Currently, South Korean Suspension PVC is being indicated around USD 680/MT FOB, while Chinese origins are being offered in the range of USD 610–630/MT FOB.
Looking ahead, further price drops for Chinese PVC may face a strong resistance level. Due to the surge in summer power consumption, rising electricity tariffs in China are placing severe pressure on production costs. This shifting cost dynamic is expected to act as a primary floor, preventing additional downward movement in export offers despite the weak demand.
What are your thoughts on the market direction? Will rising production costs and geopolitical variables push prices back up, or will the seasonal slump continue to dominate? Share your insights and perspectives in the comments below.